The AEA Strategy Briefing
Macro positioning, the semiconductor/AI-infrastructure thesis, and current portfolio reallocation, assembled onto one page from data already published across this site.
Looking for what I got wrong?
Every full letter includes a dedicated "Portfolio Review & Retrospective" section, using the same repeatable structure every time so mistakes are checkable rather than buried in prose:
- The Original Thesis
- What I said I believed or intended to do, quoted from a prior letter.
- The Reality
- What actually happened, including whether the outcome came from my own action or from the market resolving something I didn't.
- The Lesson
- The specific process or risk-assessment flaw exposed — not a restatement of the mistake, but what changes going forward because of it.
Jump straight to the latest post-mortem.
How this archive is organized
Two kinds of entries live here, both dated and both public even when they're not flattering:
- Monthly Positioning
- The full letter — thesis, performance vs. SPY, and the Portfolio Review & Retrospective section above.
- Interim Notes
- Shorter, published when something material happens between full letters — a real event that moved a position enough to be worth writing down in real time.
The archive now runs through the September 10 checkpoint; the 2022 Founding Note remains the beginning of the record.
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September 18, 2026
The Book Gained $371.30. Sandisk Supplied Nearly All of It.Sandisk added $351.60, Micron $76.04 and AMD $71.80, offsetting losses in Meta and Palo Alto. Net day: +$371.30. No trades; Sandisk finished above the position cap.
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September 16, 2026
The Book Gained $160.14 on Fed Day. SpaceX's $59.12 and Intel's $54.74 Did Most of the WorkSpaceX (+$59.12), Intel (+$54.74) and AMD (+$41.50) led 19 of 32 positions higher on the day the Fed hiked rates for the first time in three years, offsetting a $21.85 drag from SanDisk. Net day: +$160.14. No trades.
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September 15, 2026
The Book Fell $176.61 Today. AMD's $53.95 Gain and Tempus's $26.56 Couldn't Offset Cheesecake Factory, SanDisk and SpaceXAMD (+$53.95), Tempus AI (+$26.56), Meta (+$21.48) and CrowdStrike (+$14.22) rallied while Cheesecake Factory (−$67.52), SanDisk (−$42.19), SpaceX (−$37.28), Estée Lauder (−$35.46) and the leveraged Nebius ETF (−$28.80) led 20 of 32 positions lower. Net day: −$176.61. No trades.
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September 14, 2026
The Book Fell $324.47 Today. Palo Alto's $216.45 Gain Wasn't Enough to Offset SanDisk, AMD and MicronPalo Alto Networks (+$216.45), CrowdStrike (+$57.28) and ServiceNow (+$58.92) rallied on the same AI-safety headlines that sent SanDisk (−$162.72), AMD (−$113.60) and Micron (−$102.46) lower. Net day: −$324.47, on 19 of 32 positions down. No trades.
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September 11, 2026
The Book Gained $118.81 Today. AMD Alone Was Worth More Than Half of ItAMD (+$62.65), Intel (+$36.68) and Vertiv (+$26.79) led 23 of my 32 positions higher on September 11, offsetting a $118.48 drag from SanDisk. Net day: +$118.81. No trades.
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September 10, 2026
The Book Fell $816.28 Today. SanDisk, Micron and AMD Did Most of the Damage.A hot inflation print and a spike in oil sent 27 of my 32 positions lower on September 10, led by SanDisk (−$143.16), Micron (−$100.72) and AMD (−$87.48). Net day: −$816.28. No trades.
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September checkpoint September 10, 2026
The Rule Is Being Tested While the Thesis Is WorkingA current 32-position snapshot, the live 10.16% SNDK breach, the corrected −2.40% daily move, verified September macro releases, and the decisions that are still ahead.
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September 9, 2026 META, VRT, AMD, MU, DDOG
The Book Gained Just $22.33 Today. Meta Was Worth $186.18 of ItMeta's Muse-driven rally added $186.18 to my 32-holding book on September 9, almost entirely offset by a $83.82 loss on Vertiv that the news doesn't explain. Net day: +$22.33. No trades.
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September 4, 2026 SNDK, MU, AMD, NOW, NFLX
The Book Gained $929.03 Today. SanDisk Alone Was Worth $370 of ItSanDisk, Micron, AMD and the leveraged Nebius ETF drove a $929.03 gain across my 32 holdings on September 4, more than offsetting losses in ServiceNow, SpaceX, Netflix and Alphabet. No trades.
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September 2, 2026 PANW, DDOG, NOW, META, MU
A Nearly Flat Day That Didn't Feel Like One: My Cybersecurity Sleeve Lost $294 While the Book Fell Just $19.82Palo Alto Networks, Datadog, ServiceNow, CrowdStrike and Fortinet combined to cost me $294.19 after Palo Alto's earnings reaction. Meta, Micron, SanDisk, Talen and the leveraged Nebius ETF offset nearly all of it. Net book impact: -$19.82. No trades.
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September 1, 2026 PANW, SNDK, AMD, MU
Tuesday Erased Monday and Then Some: The Book Fell $646.43 on 30 of 32 PositionsThe book fell $646.43 Tuesday, more than double Monday's $265.28 gain. Palo Alto Networks alone was the single largest drag at -$100.20 -- the same position that was Monday's second-best gainer. 30 of 32 positions closed lower. No trades.
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August 31, 2026 SNDK, PANW, MU, META
Monday Reversed Friday: +$265.28, and SanDisk Alone Did 61.6% of the WorkThe book rose $265.28 Monday, recovering more than half of Friday's -$430.79 loss. Sandisk alone added $163.44 -- 61.6% of the gain -- while Palo Alto Networks, Micron and CrowdStrike also closed higher. 17 of 32 positions closed higher. No trades.
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August 28, 2026 NBIL, PANW, AMD, NOW
Twenty-Four of 32 Positions Fell Friday. Tempus AI Alone Was a Third of the Damage.A net -$430.79 Friday, led by NBIL, Palo Alto Networks and AMD, against gains in ServiceNow and Meta. 24 of 32 positions closed lower. No trades.
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August 20, 2026 MU, SNDK, CRWD, PANW
Memory Paid for the Security Drawdown, and I Traded NothingA split session inside the book: two memory positions covered most of what four security-software names took away, and none of the decliners produced a company-specific reason.
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August 24, 2026 SNDK, MU, META, TEM
The Worst Session of the Month, and Still No TradeTwo memory positions were more than half the day’s $658 drawdown, not one large decliner produced company news, and the session found a gap in my written rules rather than a reason to transact.
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Interim Note August 25, 2026
AMD and a Leveraged Nebius Bet Add $293 to the Book, Even With Palo Alto’s Worst Day in a WhileAMD, a 2x leveraged Nebius fund, and Meta led a net +$293 Tuesday, while Palo Alto Networks gave back $55 with no headline explaining it. 21 of 32 positions closed higher. No trades, and a look at what NBIL's 2x-daily mechanics actually mean in dollars.
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Interim Note August 21, 2026
Estée Lauder Added $104 to the Book on a Friday the Index Barely MovedEstée Lauder, Cheesecake Factory, and Palo Alto Networks led a net +$235 Friday, while Intel and Micron pulled the other way. 18 of 32 positions closed higher. No trades, and a look at how much room the biggest names still have.
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Interim Note August 19, 2026
WhiteFiber Fell 21% in a Day, and Estée Lauder Quietly Covered Most of ItA second consecutive day of AI-infrastructure debt repricing hit WhiteFiber, Nebius, and my leveraged NBIL position hard, while Estée Lauder's earnings beat and a Bitcoin rally offset most of the damage. 12 of 32 positions closed higher. No trades.
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Interim Note August 18, 2026
CoreWeave Fell 12%, My Leveraged Nebius Position Fell 15%, and I Made Zero TradesA debt-financing-cost repricing hit CoreWeave, Nebius, Talen, Vertiv, and WhiteFiber — the sleeve of my book I’m most exposed to. Vertiv closed below my cost basis for the first time. No trades.
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Interim Note August 17, 2026
Memory Had a Reason to Rally; My Software Names Didn’t Have One to FallSanDisk rose 8.88% and Micron rose 4.13% on a real reshoring policy signal, while ServiceNow, Datadog, Nebius, and Meta fell as the 30-year Treasury yield hit its highest level since 2007. 7 of 32 positions closed higher. No trades.
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Monthly Positioning August 2026
The Month the Site Went StaleThe book is flat since July while single sessions look dramatic, six positions caught up on earnings, and a full audit of all 238 pages found three of my own pages publishing claims that had quietly become false — including two that described the opposite of what was happening.
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Interim Note August 14, 2026
The Leveraged Position Did Exactly What It Says on the LabelNebius rose 8.88% and its 2x leveraged ETF NBIL rose 17.77% Friday, almost exactly double, while SanDisk jumped on an investor day and Broadcom and CrowdStrike fell without explanation. 15 of 32 positions closed higher. No trades.
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Interim Note August 13, 2026
Two Real Gains and One I Still Can’t ExplainSanDisk rose 13.67% and Netflix rose 5.43% Thursday on real, dated news, while Datadog rose 4.70% on none I can find. 20 of 32 positions closed higher. No trades.
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Interim Note August 11, 2026
And Then Half of the Rebound Went Away TooDatadog fell 5.37% Tuesday, giving back nearly half of Monday's rebound, while Nebius rallied 4.95% on a real strategy shift and SpaceX slipped below my cost basis. 20 of 32 positions closed higher. No trades.
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Interim Note August 10, 2026
The Half of Datadog’s Drop That Came BackDatadog rose 11.48% Monday, partially reversing its still-unexplained August 6 decline, as chips sold off and software rallied across the book. 14 of 32 positions closed higher. No trades.
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Interim Note August 7, 2026
Three Earnings Prints I Can Trace, One Move I Can’tSpaceX, Rocket Lab, ServiceNow, and CoreWeave all rallied on real, dated catalysts Friday, while Tempus AI's 12.86% jump had no source I could find. 19 of 32 positions closed higher. No trades.
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Interim Note August 6, 2026
Datadog Fell 19%, Symbotic Fell 15%, and I Can’t Tell You WhySpaceX rebounded 6.14% on a $1 trillion revenue pledge, Nebius fell another 13.29% on Meta-competition selling pressure, and Datadog and Symbotic both dropped double digits with no dated news explaining either move. No trades.
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Interim Note August 5, 2026
SpaceX Guided to $1 Trillion and Fell 13.6% AnywaySpaceX guided to a $100B run rate by December and fell 13.61% on lockup expiration and a Musk-Nvidia exclusivity announcement. AMD fell 7.04% despite record data-center revenue. No trades.
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Interim Note August 4, 2026
Arm Jumps 17%, Intel and SanDisk Both Rally 11% — No TradesTuesday was another broad rally: 29 of my 32 positions closed higher. Arm jumped 17.36%, Intel and SanDisk each rose 10.84%, and Vistra fell 8.15% for reasons I can't explain. No trades.
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Interim Note August 3, 2026
NBIL Jumps 23%, Nebius and CoreWeave Surge Double Digits — No TradesMonday was a broad, earnings-driven rally: 31 of my 32 positions closed higher. NBIL jumped 23.08%, Nebius rose 11.64%, and CoreWeave rose 19.49% -- two of them names hit by the Aschenbrenner fire sale two days earlier. No trades.
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Interim Note July 31, 2026
Alphabet Jumps 6.7%, Micron and SanDisk Slide Again — No TradesAmazon and Apple were the day's two biggest movers, and I hold neither. Alphabet jumped 6.73% on its own earnings, Micron and SanDisk gave back ground to rising rates, Vertiv and Fortinet rallied. No trades.
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Interim Note July 28, 2026
SanDisk Falls 14%, NBIL Falls Nearly 20% — A Rough Tuesday, No TradesA Chinese chipmaker's $487 billion IPO hit the memory/AI-infrastructure bucket hard — SanDisk, Micron, Nebius, NBIL, CoreWeave, Arm, and more all down — while ServiceNow and Netflix rallied. No trades.
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Interim Note July 24, 2026
A Second Rough Day for AI Infrastructure, and an Earnings Beat the Market Sold AnywayFive positions moved sharply on two separate storylines Friday — neocloud capex skepticism hit CoreWeave and Nebius, memory-cycle doubt hit SanDisk, Micron, and Arm — while Intel fell despite its best quarter in 15 years. No trades.
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Interim Note July 23, 2026
American Airlines' Roughest Day in Months, and Alphabet Falls Despite Beating EstimatesAn oil-price shock and an AI-capex re-rating hit on the same Thursday, landing on two positions I hold for very different reasons — and one, Micron, actually benefited.
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Interim Note July 22, 2026
ServiceNow's Roughest Day in Months, and SpaceX Falls Further Below CostA quiet index day hid a genuinely mixed one for the book — ServiceNow's worst day in months and a fourth SpaceX decline in two weeks, partly offset by gains in the power and AI-hardware names.
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Interim Note July 21, 2026
Nvidia Just Told the Market What It Thinks of Nebius — And SanDisk Finally Stopped FallingNvidia's disclosed stake in Nebius and a bullish Morgan Stanley call on SanDisk both hit the same day for two of my own positions — worth writing down while it's happening.
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Interim Note July 20, 2026
SpaceX Drops Below My Cost Basis, and I'm Still Not SellingA quiet index day hid two sharp moves in my own Spec bucket — SpaceX on a scrubbed Starship test, Tempus AI on acquisition scrutiny — and why neither one is a trade.
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Interim Note July 19, 2026
I Went and Checked the AI Capex NumberA follow-up to the July 17 note: real Q1 2026 SEC filing data on Alphabet and Meta's free cash flow coverage of their own AI capex, and what it does and doesn't change about holding both.
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Interim Note July 17, 2026
A Rough Session, and Why I'm Not Touching AnythingA broad Thursday selloff hit Netflix, SanDisk, and SpaceX on three unrelated theses, against a backdrop of rising worry about whether AI infrastructure spending still pays for itself.
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Interim Note July 10, 2026
A Good Week for the Book, for Two Unrelated ReasonsMicron's $250B manufacturing commitment and Meta's confirmed AI chip start date both moved the book green this week — on two theses that need to stay separate in my head, not one.
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Interim Note July 8, 2026
One Theme, Three Different ReactionsAlphabet joins the Dow, Meta's own stock whipsaws on its cloud pivot, and the same AI-infrastructure theme moves four holdings four different ways in one week.
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Interim Note July 7, 2026
A Record Market, a Rough Week for the Core SleeveA short between-letters check-in: a record Dow, a real selloff in 28.52% of the book, and why that combination is worth writing down.
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Monthly Positioning July 2026
Portfolio Composition & Ongoing RisksAn honest map of all 32 holdings and the three things that could hurt me most.
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Interim Note June 19, 2026
The Turnaround Position Just Had Its Best WeekIntel's Apple foundry deal confirmation moved a position bought years before the deal existed — a short note on what that does and doesn't prove.
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Founding Note 2022 · written in retrospect
Why I Wrote the Rules Before I Needed ThemHow the $500 start and the Investment Policy Statement actually came first — and an honest note on the limits of reconstructing that period from memory.