AEA Capital Research · Strategy Briefing
Q3 2026 Strategy Briefing
Macro positioning, the semiconductor/AI-infrastructure thesis, current portfolio positioning, and a personal read on the quarter ahead — a five-page format rebuilt each quarter, not a one-off document.
Macro Positioning
The rates backdrop this book is sized against, as of July 8, 2026:
| Metric | Level | Read |
|---|---|---|
| 2Y Treasury | 4.21% | 10Y–2Y spread +0.35 — curve is not inverted. |
| 10Y Treasury | 4.56% | |
| Fed Funds Target Range | 3.50–3.75% | FOMC held steady at the June 17, 2026 meeting. |
| HY Credit Spread (OAS) | 2.70% | ICE BofA US High Yield Index — no sign of credit-market stress. |
A normal, unstressed curve and tight credit spreads are a permissive backdrop for the growth-tilted, low-income book this site runs — the macro isn't the source of near-term risk this quarter; positioning within the book is (see Page 4). Full detail and live sourcing on the homepage's Yield Curve & Credit monitor.
Semiconductor & AI-Infrastructure Thesis
This remains the book's dominant single theme — 31.81% of the portfolio sits in Semiconductors alone, with more spread across AI/Cloud Infrastructure and Power & Utilities. The standing thesis across the five largest names in the theme, quoted directly from each position page:
SNDK — largest position, 10.20% of book
"Sandisk is one of the five largest NAND flash suppliers globally, vertically integrated through a manufacturing joint venture with Kioxia, and now free to price and invest on its own since its 2025 spin-off from Western Digital. Storage is an under-discussed leg of the AI buildout." Full thesis →
MU — 5.60% of book
"Micron is one of the largest memory and storage chip makers globally... still trades at a reasonable 23x trailing earnings despite being up sharply on cost — cheap relative to how central high-bandwidth memory is to the AI buildout." Full thesis →
AMD — 7.64% of book
"AMD is a leading designer of CPUs and GPUs for PCs and data centers, and is emerging as the closest thing to a credible second source for AI accelerators through its MI-series line." Full thesis →
INTC — 4.56% of book
"Intel remains the CPU share leader in both PC and server markets... but the real thesis is a turnaround bet: whether Intel Foundry can land real external customers and catch process-node execution up to leading-edge competitors." Full thesis →
NBIS — 1.28% of book
"Nebius is a vertically integrated cloud provider for AI and HPC, operating its own data centers across Europe and the US — real infrastructure, not just a story about future AI demand." Full thesis →
Portfolio Positioning
No trades this quarter constitute a reallocation — positioning below is the current, unchanged state of the book, not a proposed change to it (a personal view on possible near-term changes is on Page 4).
Return contribution — today's weight × total return — is concentrated in a small number of names, led by SNDK (+26.26 pts), META (+12.98 pts), AMD (+12.19 pts), MU (+10.71 pts), and INTC (+8.87 pts). Full ranked list and methodology caveats on the Holdings page.
Q3 Outlook — Personal View
Everything on the first three pages is checkable data. This page is different — it's my own read heading into Q3, stated as opinion because that's what it is.
I'm leaning more aggressive, not more cautious, heading into Q3. The macro backdrop on Page 1 is permissive, the core semiconductor/AI-infrastructure thesis hasn't broken, and I'd add to the book's highest-conviction names if the right setup showed up — I'm not looking to de-risk from here.
The scenario I'm most focused on isn't sector-specific bad news — it's a capital-expenditure digestion cycle across the Magnificent Seven. If a hyperscaler at Meta's scale begins actively monetizing excess compute capacity rather than continuing to build it out, that's a signal AI-infrastructure spending outran near-term demand. NVIDIA's own recent multiple compression is the template I'm watching for: consensus-beating earnings no longer move the stock the way they once did, because the market has shifted its attention from "how fast is this growing" to "is this capex spend sustainable." If that pattern migrates downstream to the memory suppliers this book actually owns, SNDK and MU could face the same growth-without-re-rating dynamic — real earnings growth the market simply stops rewarding once the capex narrative cools.
Nothing below is reflected in the Holdings page yet, and none of it is a decision — it's what I'm actively thinking through heading into Q3. SNDK is already flagged elsewhere on this site as technically over its 10% IPS cap at 10.02%; I'm starting to look seriously at trimming it back toward or under that line rather than treating the breach as settled. On the other side of that trim, I'm evaluating rotating some of that capital into enterprise software and adjacent growth names not fully represented in the book today — adding to NOW, and taking a first look at names like CRM and BE — alongside a possible add to AMD, which I still see as the more credible long-term second-source story in AI accelerators versus the memory names that would be most exposed if the capex-digestion risk above plays out. If any of this becomes real, it'll be reported in the next letter and reflected on the Holdings page the moment it happens, not before.
Risk Disclosures & Sources
AEA Capital Research is an educational project by Aydin Ali and does not constitute financial advice or fiduciary investment management. Nothing in this briefing is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Page 4 in particular is explicitly labeled as personal opinion, not analysis — treat it accordingly.
Where each page is sourced from
- Page 1 (Macro): 2Y/10Y Treasury via Massive Market Data; Fed Funds target range from the FOMC's June 17, 2026 statement; HY OAS from the ICE BofA US High Yield Index. Full detail on the homepage.
- Page 2 (Thesis): Quoted verbatim from each position's own Investment Thesis field — see individual position pages for full bull/base/bear cases and sourcing.
- Page 3 (Positioning): Computed from real position weights and returns via Blossom; full methodology and caveats on the Holdings page.
- Page 4 (Outlook): My own stated opinion as of the compile date above, not derived from any external source.
What this briefing is and isn't
This is a reading aid and a personal outlook statement, not a new disclosure or a trade confirmation. If a number on Pages 1–3 ever conflicts with the page it's sourced from, the source page is correct and this briefing is stale — treat it as a snapshot compiled on the date above. This document is rebuilt each quarter; prior quarters are not currently archived separately.