Market snapshot · September 18, 2026 close
S&P 500 (SPY) $773.50 +1.55% Nasdaq-100 (QQQ) $741.47 +2.77% Dow (DIA) $519.78 +0.76% Russell 2000 (IWM) $285.58 +0.52% 10-Year Treasury (IEF) $91.15 +0.39% Crude Oil (USO) $148.16 −3.68% Gold (GLD) $398.38 −0.70% US Dollar Index (UUP) $28.48 +0.32% Volatility (VXX) $17.69 −0.39% Semiconductors (SMH) $596.03 +4.02% Silver (SLV) $59.63 −0.50% Emerging Markets (EEM) $68.83 +2.69% Bitcoin (BTC) $86,594.94 +6.70% Ethereum (ETH) $2,775.58 +4.95% S&P 500 (SPY) $773.50 +1.55% Nasdaq-100 (QQQ) $741.47 +2.77% Dow (DIA) $519.78 +0.76% Russell 2000 (IWM) $285.58 +0.52% 10-Year Treasury (IEF) $91.15 +0.39% Crude Oil (USO) $148.16 −3.68% Gold (GLD) $398.38 −0.70% US Dollar Index (UUP) $28.48 +0.32% Volatility (VXX) $17.69 −0.39% Semiconductors (SMH) $596.03 +4.02% Silver (SLV) $59.63 −0.50% Emerging Markets (EEM) $68.83 +2.69% Bitcoin (BTC) $86,594.94 +6.70% Ethereum (ETH) $2,775.58 +4.95%
AEACapital Research

Independent student research — not an investment firm or financial advice

Research in Progress

Watchlist

Fifteen real companies I'm actively researching but don't own yet — tracked in the open. A name moves from here to Holdings only after a written thesis, a risk case, and a sizing decision under the Investment Policy Statement.

Prices as of September 21, 2026 close · not owned, not a recommendation

Download Portfolio Monitoring & Returns (.xlsx) →

All 15 names here are grouped alongside the 32 held positions in that workbook's Valuation Comps tab (EV/EBITDA, P/E, PEG, margins, outlier flags), sourced from stockanalysis.com / S&P Global Market Intelligence as of July 13–14, 2026. Every name below also links its own real 3-statement model (Income Statement, Balance Sheet, Cash Flow, 5-year projection).

Download the full Portfolio & Watchlist Research Report (.docx) → Download the Sector Landscape Overview (.docx) →

Why publish a watchlist at all

A watchlist is the part of the process that usually stays private — the names you're turning over in your head before you've committed real money. Publishing it here means the record includes the ideas I looked at and didn't buy, not just the ones that worked. If a name on this list eventually becomes a position, the dated entry below is the honest paper trail of when I started paying attention and why. Click any ticker for the full deep dive — real fundamentals, why it's here, and what would actually move me to buy — the same depth as a Holdings security page.

Quantitative Screening Protocol

Every name on this list clears a mechanical floor before I spend time on the qualitative case. These thresholds are placeholders in the sense that they'll get revised as the process matures — but they're the actual filter applied today, not aspirational language.

  1. Size & liquidity

    Minimum Market Capitalization > $2B · Liquidity, Average Daily Volume > 1M shares. Filters out names too small or too thin to size and exit without moving the price myself.

  2. Financial quality

    Profitability, Positive TTM Free Cash Flow > $0, or a credible, funded path to it within 24 months for pre-profit names · Balance sheet, Net Debt / EBITDA < 4x. Filters out businesses that depend on continuous external financing to keep operating.

  3. Ownership & governance

    Insider ownership > 5% or a clearly identifiable founder-operator still active · No open, unresolved accounting or governance red flags (restatements, auditor resignations). Filters out businesses where management's incentives aren't visibly aligned with shareholders.

  4. Thesis fit

    Must map to an identifiable theme already represented in the book, or a deliberate, disclosed diversification decision · Must clear the same single-position and sleeve caps in the Investment Policy Statement before sizing. Only names that clear all four tiers get a written thesis and a spot on this table.

Upcoming Catalysts & Event Risks

The same dated event calendar as the homepage, relevant to both owned positions and names on this list.

  1. Reported Sep 11, 2026
    August CPI release

    Headline CPI rose 0.4% month over month and 3.4% year over year; core CPI rose 2.4% year over year. Those figures remain direct valuation inputs for every long-duration name on this list.

  2. Reported Sep 16, 2026
    FOMC rate increase

    The Fed raised the target range 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00%. Growth names on this list (PLTR, IONQ, COIN) remain more rate-sensitive than the mega-caps.

Ticker Company Sector Price Day Conviction 30-Day Trend Deep dive
NVDANVIDIA CorpSemiconductors$227.38+2.30%MediumRead →
TSMTaiwan SemiconductorSemiconductor foundry$445.14+2.41%MediumRead →
ASMLASML HoldingSemiconductor equipment$1,711.32+1.87%MediumRead →
ORCLOracle CorpEnterprise software / cloud$148.56+0.64%LowRead →
APLDApplied Digital CorpData center / GPU cloud$28.19+0.25%LowRead →
PLTRPalantir TechnologiesEnterprise / gov't AI software$183.09+3.07%LowRead →
CRMSalesforce IncEnterprise CRM / AI software$236.42−0.63%LowRead →
UBERUber TechnologiesMobility / network platform$70.84+0.48%LowRead →
COINCoinbase GlobalCrypto exchange / infra$201.05+3.50%LowRead →
IONQIonQ IncQuantum computing$40.51+3.53%LowRead →
MSFTMicrosoft CorpCloud / enterprise AI$501.61+1.59%MediumRead →
AMZNAmazon.com IncE-commerce / cloud (AWS)$258.45+1.87%MediumRead →
AAPLApple IncConsumer hardware / services$338.98+0.85%LowRead →
SMCISuper Micro ComputerAI server manufacturing$41.20+5.40%LowRead →
MRVLMarvell TechnologyCustom AI silicon / networking$257.38+5.38%MediumRead →

Real closing prices via Massive Market Data, refreshed automatically alongside Holdings as part of the daily pipeline (see Disclosures). The 30-Day Trend column is a real, axis-less sparkline of each name's trailing 20 trading-day closing prices — green if the period ended higher than it started, red if lower; it's a shape, not a precise chart, so hover the ticker link for exact prices. Conviction here means something different than on an owned position: it's my honest read of how likely this name is to become a real position, not confidence in a thesis I've already acted on.