The Dow was higher on Monday, but that was not the day described by several of my published holdings. MU, AMD and INTC all fell. A positive index headline does not relieve me of the job of checking which risks I own in common. Three companies can have different products and still respond together when expectations for semiconductor demand get marked down.
Apple’s after-close outlook added a different piece of evidence. Management expects 45% to 46% gross margin for the December quarter, and AP reported that memory costs were one source of pressure. That gives me a question for the memory exposure: who captures better pricing, for which products, and when? It does not tell me that any one supplier has secured a particular contract or margin.
MU against SPY
35 common trading sessions · first close = 100
View the closing-price data
| Date | MU | SPY |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | $927.60 | $757.39 |
| 2026-09-16 | $926.55 | $754.05 |
| 2026-09-17 | $977.50 | $762.60 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1,015.80 | $761.69 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1,043.96 | $773.50 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1,096.16 | $773.38 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1,071.88 | $767.81 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1,080.53 | $767.18 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1,082.28 | $771.35 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1,053.98 | $765.61 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1,065.08 | $764.20 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1,065.11 | $762.63 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1,097.39 | $763.99 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1,074.89 | $769.64 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1,063.96 | $774.83 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1,045.56 | $779.09 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1,088.00 | $777.22 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1,035.84 | $773.93 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1,029.00 | $778.57 |
| 2026-10-12 | $989.04 | $778.10 |
| 2026-10-13 | $953.19 | $778.01 |
| 2026-10-14 | $914.13 | $769.60 |
| 2026-10-15 | $931.24 | $771.79 |
| 2026-10-16 | $878.84 | $763.25 |
| 2026-10-19 | $904.90 | $766.48 |
| 2026-10-20 | $896.07 | $769.05 |
| 2026-10-21 | $913.67 | $773.09 |
| 2026-10-22 | $856.49 | $763.96 |
| 2026-10-23 | $877.55 | $759.97 |
| 2026-10-26 | $903.70 | $765.37 |
| 2026-10-27 | $928.76 | $769.66 |
| 2026-10-28 | $983.23 | $772.31 |
| 2026-10-29 | $934.27 | $769.36 |
| 2026-10-30 | $884.74 | $755.72 |
| 2026-11-02 | $833.59 | $752.10 |
DIA rose 0.43% while QQQ fell 1.36%. That comparison tells me which market headline would have been a poor shorthand for the day. It does not tell me what to trade. I would use it to check exposure at the portfolio level, then return to the individual releases for the reasons to change a thesis.
I am separating the closing prices, the later earnings call and my interpretation. The share file is not a transaction log, so this letter does not claim an executed trade or an account return. The Blackout Rule and Holding Period still apply.
| Measure | Reported figure | Context |
|---|---|---|
| MU | −5.78% | November 2 close to close |
| AMD | −7.52% | November 2 close to close |
| INTC | −8.80% | November 2 close to close |
Aydin Ali
AEA Capital Research