AMD fell 17.26%, Micron 17.46% and Vertiv 14.02%. They do different jobs: processors, memory and the infrastructure that supports the equipment. They are not independent exposures if I have underwritten each one on the assumption that the same data-center projects will keep expanding. That is the part I want to check before I go through the individual position files.
AMD’s fourth-quarter revenue guide is around $17 billion, with a 3% band either way. I can compare the eventual report against that range. I cannot use it to fill in an order book for Vertiv, or to decide what Micron will earn on a particular memory product. I want the next update in each file to say which forecast belongs to that company and which assumption I carried across from another name. If I cannot identify the evidence, I should leave the assumption open.
VRT against SPY
35 common trading sessions · first close = 100
View the closing-price data
| Date | VRT | SPY |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-18 | $249.39 | $761.69 |
| 2026-09-21 | $250.86 | $773.50 |
| 2026-09-22 | $253.46 | $773.38 |
| 2026-09-23 | $248.78 | $767.81 |
| 2026-09-24 | $245.30 | $767.18 |
| 2026-09-25 | $253.28 | $771.35 |
| 2026-09-28 | $244.04 | $765.61 |
| 2026-09-29 | $248.34 | $764.20 |
| 2026-09-30 | $241.31 | $762.63 |
| 2026-10-01 | $246.12 | $763.99 |
| 2026-10-02 | $252.18 | $769.64 |
| 2026-10-05 | $253.62 | $774.83 |
| 2026-10-06 | $253.14 | $779.09 |
| 2026-10-07 | $246.49 | $777.22 |
| 2026-10-08 | $243.73 | $773.93 |
| 2026-10-09 | $242.78 | $778.57 |
| 2026-10-12 | $239.36 | $778.10 |
| 2026-10-13 | $237.29 | $778.01 |
| 2026-10-14 | $222.83 | $769.60 |
| 2026-10-15 | $214.75 | $771.79 |
| 2026-10-16 | $206.42 | $763.25 |
| 2026-10-19 | $206.08 | $766.48 |
| 2026-10-20 | $203.56 | $769.05 |
| 2026-10-21 | $212.15 | $773.09 |
| 2026-10-22 | $195.59 | $763.96 |
| 2026-10-23 | $194.32 | $759.97 |
| 2026-10-26 | $199.78 | $765.37 |
| 2026-10-27 | $208.56 | $769.66 |
| 2026-10-28 | $242.94 | $772.31 |
| 2026-10-29 | $245.92 | $769.36 |
| 2026-10-30 | $232.50 | $755.72 |
| 2026-11-02 | $224.24 | $752.10 |
| 2026-11-03 | $235.97 | $754.35 |
| 2026-11-04 | $205.55 | $766.81 |
| 2026-11-05 | $176.73 | $733.00 |
The percentages here are changes in the quoted shares, not what my account earned or lost. The published holdings are not a transaction ledger, and this letter does not claim a trade. The Blackout Rule and Holding Period still apply. My job after a day like this is to identify where the same project assumption entered several positions, then look for evidence that would confirm or contradict it.
| Measure | Reported figure | Context |
|---|---|---|
| AMD | -17.26% | Share-price change; published holding |
| MU | -17.46% | Share-price change; published holding |
| VRT | -14.02% | Share-price change; published holding |
| VST | -6.15% | Share-price change; published holding |
Aydin Ali
AEA Capital Research