July 2026 · Interim Note
Nvidia Just Told the Market What It Thinks of Nebius — And SanDisk Finally Stopped Falling
Tuesday is shaping up to be the mirror image of last week for two of my own positions, and it’s worth writing down while it’s happening rather than only in hindsight.
Nebius (NBIS) is up sharply in early trading after Nvidia disclosed a 9.3% passive equity stake in the company — a real, dated regulatory disclosure, not a rumor — on top of the $2 billion investment Nvidia announced back in March. Nebius also just secured a fresh $775 million debt facility for AI-cloud expansion. I can’t independently verify today’s exact closing percentage until Massive Market Data settles tonight — Benzinga and GuruFocus both have it up mid-to-high single digits as I write this, on real Monday closes of $182.62 for NBIS. Whatever the final print, a strategic equity stake from Nvidia itself is a different kind of signal than a headline: it’s the largest AI-accelerator company in the world putting its own balance sheet behind a thesis I already hold. Full story on the News page.
SanDisk (SNDK), my largest position, had a genuinely rough week — down roughly 19% on a closing basis from the prior Monday through Friday, with some outlets citing an even sharper intraday drawdown closer to 24–30%. Today it’s bouncing after Morgan Stanley’s Joseph Moore called the pullback overdone and forecast memory prices up 25%+ quarter over quarter into Q3, on the same AI-driven data-center memory shortage I wrote about in July’s whitepaper. SanDisk reports FQ4/FY26 earnings August 5 — that’s the real test, not either direction of this week’s swings. My own read on why this connects to Nebius, too, is in today’s Opinion piece.
No trades today
Neither move changes a thesis I’ve already written up. The Blackout Rule and Holding Period exist for exactly this kind of week — a bad five days and a good one day later are both data, not decisions.