Earnings Desk

Catalyst Calendar

Confirmed dates only—no estimated dates dressed up as a calendar. Past events stay visible as Reported. The September FOMC meeting has concluded; Micron’s September 30 fiscal Q4 call is the next confirmed company event.

Company dates come from investor-relations announcements or SEC filings. The September 16 decision is linked to the Federal Reserve statement; Micron’s September 30 call is confirmed by its August 26 investor-relations release. Refreshed September 18, 2026. Dates can shift, so check the linked source near each event.

Portfolio Monitoring

A single-glance status board across every operating position, sorted by weight — the rating each name carries as of its most recently reported quarter, pulled directly from that position's own earnings report, not re-assessed here. This is the coverage-universe view an analyst desk would keep to spot a rating change fast; on this book, that's currently one name (NBIS), not a wave of downgrades.

"Rating" is each report's own conclusion (HOLD = no position change; BUY = initiated or added), not a live re-scoring — it updates only when a new earnings report is published for that name. See the Holdings page for current sizing and the Letters archive for anything that changed between reports.

Consensus vs. AEA Matrix

Street consensus EPS against actual reported EPS, with a real, computed surprise %. The AEA Estimate column is new as of this page redesign (July 11, 2026) — I did not publish pre-earnings EPS estimates before this feature existed, so backfilling one for a quarter that already reported would misrepresent a prediction as having been made before the outcome was known. Historical rows are honestly marked "not tracked pre-earnings"; the column starts populating for real, prospectively, with each new report from here forward. Consensus-estimate coverage below is partial — the largest nine positions by weight with a confidently sourced Street estimate — and will expand over time.

Street consensus EPS sourced via public financial-data aggregators and news coverage at the time of each report, cited on each position's individual earnings report page. Surprise % = (Actual − Consensus) / Consensus. All nine names above beat consensus this reporting cycle — that's a real, if flattering, pattern in this specific batch, not a claim that every position always beats; the Letters archive reports misses and broken theses with the same visibility.

Surprise %, ranked

Same nine rows as the table above, ranked by surprise magnitude rather than allocation weight — SNDK's 63% beat dwarfs the rest of the batch, EL is the only non-tech name to make the list.

Latest report library

Open the latest published earnings note for every operating company currently covered in the portfolio.

% of book refreshed from the September 18, 2026 close using the current Holdings table. Index funds are excluded because they do not report company earnings. A linked note is the latest published AEA note, while the September desk-status note above names the coverage gaps still being worked.

Prior-Quarter Archive

The table above always points at the most recent quarter on record for each name. Eight companies have now reported twice since coverage began, so the earlier note has been superseded. Those earlier notes stay published and unedited — a report card is only worth something if the previous one is still there to check it against. Each link below is the prior quarter, not the current one.

Earlier notes are preserved as written and are not retroactively corrected. Where a later quarter changed the read, the newer note says so.