Earnings Desk

Catalyst Calendar

Selected confirmed dates, not an exhaustive earnings calendar. The upcoming filter shows scheduled company events; reported results remain visible for reference.

Selected calendar entries reviewed November 5, 2026: Micron and AMD reported results; NVIDIA announced its November 17 event on October 28. Older entries retain their original event dates. Check the linked company schedule for changes.

Portfolio Monitoring

Positions are sorted by their published-book weights. Ratings come from the linked AEA notes and apply to the quarters covered in those notes. A company may have reported newer results since its note was published; refreshing weights does not update ratings.

"Rating" is each report's own conclusion (HOLD = no position change; BUY = initiated or added), not a live re-scoring — it updates only when a new earnings report is published for that name. See the Holdings page for current sizing and the Letters archive for anything that changed between reports.

Consensus vs. AEA Matrix

Street consensus EPS against actual reported EPS, with a real, computed surprise %. The AEA Estimate column is new as of this page redesign (July 11, 2026) — I did not publish pre-earnings EPS estimates before this feature existed, so backfilling one for a quarter that already reported would misrepresent a prediction as having been made before the outcome was known. Historical rows are honestly marked "not tracked pre-earnings"; the column starts populating for real, prospectively, with each new report from here forward. Consensus-estimate coverage below is partial — the largest nine positions by weight with a confidently sourced Street estimate — and will expand over time.

Street consensus EPS sourced via public financial-data aggregators and news coverage at the time of each report, cited on each position's individual earnings report page. Surprise % = (Actual − Consensus) / Consensus. All nine names above beat consensus this reporting cycle — that's a real, if flattering, pattern in this specific batch, not a claim that every position always beats; the Letters archive reports misses and broken theses with the same visibility.

Surprise %, ranked

Same nine rows as the table above, ranked by surprise magnitude rather than allocation weight — SNDK's 63% beat dwarfs the rest of the batch, EL is the only non-tech name to make the list.

Latest report library

Open the latest published earnings note for every operating company currently covered in the portfolio.

% of book refreshed from the November 6, 2026 close using the current Holdings table. Index funds are excluded because they do not report company earnings. A linked note is the latest published AEA note, while the September desk-status note above names the coverage gaps still being worked.

Prior-Quarter Archive

The table above links to the latest published AEA note for each covered company, which may predate its latest earnings release. The links below preserve earlier AEA notes as published for comparison.

Earlier notes are preserved as written and are not retroactively corrected. Where a later quarter changed the read, the newer note says so.