Intel’s drop matters to me because INTC is in the published holdings, not because a large percentage decline automatically makes a stock cheap. Friday also took AMD down 10.88% and MU down 5.30%. Those are share-price changes, not a verified daily return for my account. They do show why counting ticker symbols overstates diversification when several positions depend on a related spending cycle.
Intel expects fourth-quarter revenue of $15 billion to $16 billion. I want that outlook beside the reported quarter and the assumptions I had already made about demand, supply and margins. I do not want to quietly move the goalposts because the position became uncomfortable. The AMD and Micron questions are different: their share moves belong in the exposure review, but Intel’s outlook is not their guidance.
AMD against SPY
35 common trading sessions · first close = 100
View the closing-price data
| Date | AMD | SPY |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | $493.41 | $760.88 |
| 2026-09-15 | $504.20 | $757.39 |
| 2026-09-16 | $512.50 | $754.05 |
| 2026-09-17 | $545.09 | $762.60 |
| 2026-09-18 | $559.82 | $761.69 |
| 2026-09-21 | $615.52 | $773.50 |
| 2026-09-22 | $623.77 | $773.38 |
| 2026-09-23 | $614.61 | $767.81 |
| 2026-09-24 | $629.26 | $767.18 |
| 2026-09-25 | $630.63 | $771.35 |
| 2026-09-28 | $607.87 | $765.61 |
| 2026-09-29 | $607.57 | $764.20 |
| 2026-09-30 | $611.76 | $762.63 |
| 2026-10-01 | $615.73 | $763.99 |
| 2026-10-02 | $633.91 | $769.64 |
| 2026-10-05 | $631.75 | $774.83 |
| 2026-10-06 | $649.42 | $779.09 |
| 2026-10-07 | $645.86 | $777.22 |
| 2026-10-08 | $620.68 | $773.93 |
| 2026-10-09 | $608.10 | $778.57 |
| 2026-10-12 | $594.24 | $778.10 |
| 2026-10-13 | $605.53 | $778.01 |
| 2026-10-14 | $570.82 | $769.60 |
| 2026-10-15 | $562.23 | $771.79 |
| 2026-10-16 | $528.75 | $763.25 |
| 2026-10-19 | $538.05 | $766.48 |
| 2026-10-20 | $534.74 | $769.05 |
| 2026-10-21 | $552.72 | $773.09 |
| 2026-10-22 | $507.93 | $763.96 |
| 2026-10-23 | $516.79 | $759.97 |
| 2026-10-26 | $531.28 | $765.37 |
| 2026-10-27 | $560.26 | $769.66 |
| 2026-10-28 | $578.44 | $772.31 |
| 2026-10-29 | $566.42 | $769.36 |
| 2026-10-30 | $504.80 | $755.72 |
I would keep a second line in the review for spending assumptions shared by multiple names. Amazon’s cash-capex outlook belongs there, not under Intel’s own guidance. A customer expanding its buildout can be good evidence of demand without telling me which supplier earns it or when the cash arrives.
This note records a research review, not an execution. The available holdings file does not establish whether any trade occurred. My Blackout Rule and Holding Period still govern decisions; neither changes because the tape was difficult.
| Measure | Reported figure | Context |
|---|---|---|
| INTC | −28.58% | Published holding; share-price move |
| AMD | −10.88% | Published holding; share-price move |
| MU | −5.30% | Published holding; share-price move |
Aydin Ali
AEA Capital Research