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S&P 500 (SPY) $748.62 +0.88% Nasdaq-100 (QQQ) $708.90 +1.85% Dow (DIA) $522.55 +0.89% Russell 2000 (IWM) $295.82 +1.20% 10-Year Treasury (IEF) $93.32 −0.23% Crude Oil (USO) $128.37 +2.28% Gold (GLD) $373.85 +1.70% US Dollar Index (UUP) $28.45 +0.23% Volatility (VXX) $21.29 −3.77% Semiconductors (SMH) $583.24 +4.37% Silver (SLV) $53.36 +4.67% Emerging Markets (EEM) $65.45 +2.97% Bitcoin (BTC) $66,470.13 +1.90% Ethereum (ETH) $1,922.88 +1.00% S&P 500 (SPY) $748.62 +0.88% Nasdaq-100 (QQQ) $708.90 +1.85% Dow (DIA) $522.55 +0.89% Russell 2000 (IWM) $295.82 +1.20% 10-Year Treasury (IEF) $93.32 −0.23% Crude Oil (USO) $128.37 +2.28% Gold (GLD) $373.85 +1.70% US Dollar Index (UUP) $28.45 +0.23% Volatility (VXX) $21.29 −3.77% Semiconductors (SMH) $583.24 +4.37% Silver (SLV) $53.36 +4.67% Emerging Markets (EEM) $65.45 +2.97% Bitcoin (BTC) $66,470.13 +1.90% Ethereum (ETH) $1,922.88 +1.00%
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July 2026 · Interim Note

SanDisk Falls 14%, NBIL Falls Nearly 20% — A Rough Tuesday, No Trades

July 28, 2026 · Not a full monthly letter — a short check-in between them

Tuesday, July 28, was one of the harder sessions to just sit through this year, and it landed almost entirely inside my own memory and AI-infrastructure bucket. SanDisk, my largest position, fell 14.25% to $1,096.10 — part of a slide Motley Fool now puts at roughly 31% over three sessions (Friday, Monday, and Tuesday), tied to two real things: Chinese chipmaker CXMT’s $487 billion IPO, which raised $8 billion and threatens to undercut NAND pricing with cheaper competing supply, and separate investor worry that AI infrastructure spending is due for a pause. Micron fell 8.85% on the same story.

The rest of the bucket moved with it

My leveraged Nebius ETF, NBIL, fell nearly 20%; Nebius itself was down 9.68%, and CoreWeave dropped another 4.93% — both still working off the capex-sustainability concern that first hit hard this past Friday, July 24, and that I’ve already written up twice this week in Opinion. AMD, Arm, Marvell, Vertiv, Talen, Intel, Vistra, and Rocket Lab were all down mid-to-high single digits or worse alongside them.

Not everything in the book moved the same direction — ServiceNow rallied 4.79%, Netflix added 2.83%, American Airlines gained 2.74%, and Alphabet was up 2.19%, enough green to make clear this was a concentrated repricing of one thesis, not a market-wide risk-off day.

No trades today

The Blackout Rule and Holding Period exist so a day like this doesn’t turn into a decision made under stress. Nothing about Tuesday changes the thesis I laid out in the Physical Limits of Compute whitepaper — it’s the market repricing a risk I’d already flagged, not new information. The mechanism itself, CXMT’s IPO, is covered in today’s News piece, and what I think it means for the broader AI-capex debate is in today’s Opinion piece.

Sources: cited in full on the linked News and Opinion articles. Price data via Massive Market Data. This note is educational and reflects my personal views only. It is not investment advice.