AMD is in the published holdings. At the early-afternoon check it was up 5.4%, but the scheduled report was still ahead. I want the questions written down while that distinction is clear. If I start from the color of the quote, I risk deciding that whatever appears in the release must confirm the move.
I want to distinguish demand that has already shipped and been recognized from demand described in an outlook. Then I want to see how much of the operating gain survives the cost of supplying it. Apple’s December margin guidance gives me a separate reminder that the buyer’s and supplier’s economics need not improve together. It does not substitute for evidence about AMD’s own product mix.
AMD against SPY
35 common trading sessions · first close = 100
View the closing-price data
| Date | AMD | SPY |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | $504.20 | $757.39 |
| 2026-09-16 | $512.50 | $754.05 |
| 2026-09-17 | $545.09 | $762.60 |
| 2026-09-18 | $559.82 | $761.69 |
| 2026-09-21 | $615.52 | $773.50 |
| 2026-09-22 | $623.77 | $773.38 |
| 2026-09-23 | $614.61 | $767.81 |
| 2026-09-24 | $629.26 | $767.18 |
| 2026-09-25 | $630.63 | $771.35 |
| 2026-09-28 | $607.87 | $765.61 |
| 2026-09-29 | $607.57 | $764.20 |
| 2026-09-30 | $611.76 | $762.63 |
| 2026-10-01 | $615.73 | $763.99 |
| 2026-10-02 | $633.91 | $769.64 |
| 2026-10-05 | $631.75 | $774.83 |
| 2026-10-06 | $649.42 | $779.09 |
| 2026-10-07 | $645.86 | $777.22 |
| 2026-10-08 | $620.68 | $773.93 |
| 2026-10-09 | $608.10 | $778.57 |
| 2026-10-12 | $594.24 | $778.10 |
| 2026-10-13 | $605.53 | $778.01 |
| 2026-10-14 | $570.82 | $769.60 |
| 2026-10-15 | $562.23 | $771.79 |
| 2026-10-16 | $528.75 | $763.25 |
| 2026-10-19 | $538.05 | $766.48 |
| 2026-10-20 | $534.74 | $769.05 |
| 2026-10-21 | $552.72 | $773.09 |
| 2026-10-22 | $507.93 | $763.96 |
| 2026-10-23 | $516.79 | $759.97 |
| 2026-10-26 | $531.28 | $765.37 |
| 2026-10-27 | $560.26 | $769.66 |
| 2026-10-28 | $578.44 | $772.31 |
| 2026-10-29 | $566.42 | $769.36 |
| 2026-10-30 | $504.80 | $755.72 |
| 2026-11-02 | $466.84 | $752.10 |
AMD fell 7.52% at Monday’s close. Tuesday’s gain was an early-afternoon observation, not the end of a two-day recovery. I want the comparison in the file because it is easy to remember the rebound and forget the starting point. I also want the quarter judged against the questions above, not against whether the rebound survives.
This letter is dated to the pre-release session, not to the results that follow. It makes no claim about a trade or account return. I am preserving the research question, and the Blackout Rule and Holding Period remain in force.
| Measure | Reported figure | Context |
|---|---|---|
| AMD | +5.4% | AP intraday observation |
| AMD results | After the November 3 close | Company schedule |
| Apple December gross margin | 45–46% | Management outlook reported by AP |
Aydin Ali
AEA Capital Research