Equity Research · Earnings Update
Sandisk Corporation (SNDK)
Summary and key takeaways
Sandisk (formerly the flash-storage arm of Western Digital, spun off in early 2025) reported fiscal fourth-quarter 2026 revenue of $8.97 billion, up 371.6% year-over-year and up 51% sequentially, driven by explosive NAND flash pricing and surging datacenter SSD demand tied to AI infrastructure buildouts. Non-GAAP EPS of $39.25 beat the Zacks consensus estimate of roughly $34.45 by nearly 15%, and GAAP diluted EPS came in at $43.97 on $6.90 billion of GAAP net income. This is far and away the largest print of any name in the book this quarter, and it’s the primary reason SNDK is now sitting on a +156% gain and remains the single largest position by allocation.
Results snapshot
| Metric | Fiscal Q4 2026 | YoY change |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $8.97B | +371.6% |
| Non-GAAP EPS | $39.25 | Beat $34.45 est. (+14.6%) |
| GAAP diluted EPS | $43.97 | — |
| GAAP net income | $6.90B | — |
| Sequential revenue growth | +51% | ~1/3 volume, 2/3 pricing |
Analysis
The scale of this beat is almost hard to parse against last year’s numbers — revenue nearly quintupled year-over-year, which says more about how depressed NAND pricing was a year ago than it does about any single quarter of execution. But the sequential number is the one that matters for the thesis: 51% quarter-over-quarter growth, roughly two-thirds of it from pricing and one-third from volume, is a live read on a NAND market that has gone from oversupplied to acutely tight as AI datacenter buildouts pull forward enterprise SSD demand faster than fab capacity can follow.
SNDK is a structurally simple bet: NAND flash is a commodity, commodities are cyclical, and this is the up-leg of the cycle arriving earlier and steeper than I expected when I first sized the position. At 7.94% of the book it’s now my largest single holding by allocation, which is a function of price appreciation more than any decision to add — a reminder to actively think about trimming into strength rather than letting the position size itself.
Guidance
- First quarter fiscal 2027 revenue guided to $10.30–10.80 billion
- Non-GAAP diluted EPS guided to $44.00–46.00
- Management continues to point to NAND supply remaining structurally tight through at least the first half of fiscal 2027
Updated investment thesis
SNDK is a Core holding on a cyclical NAND-pricing recovery colliding with a structural AI-storage demand shift. This quarter confirms both halves of that thesis are playing out simultaneously, and playing out faster than the original underwriting assumed.
No position changes from this report. At +156% and 7.94% of the book, this has become a sizing question rather than a thesis question — the fundamentals still look intact, but a position this large deserves an explicit trim discussion rather than passive drift.
Risks to this position
- Cyclicality risk: NAND pricing cycles reverse, often sharply — a large share of this quarter’s growth was price-driven, not volume-driven, and pricing can fall as fast as it rose.
- Concentration risk: at 7.94% of the book, SNDK is now large enough that a reversal would have an outsized effect on overall portfolio performance.
- Guidance is a single quarter out (Q1 FY2027); NAND spot pricing can move meaningfully within a quarter.
- Customer concentration in hyperscaler/datacenter SSD demand ties SNDK’s near-term results to the same AI-capex cycle underlying several other positions in the book (VRT, TLN, VST).
Sources & references
- Sandisk Reports Fiscal Fourth Quarter 2026 Financial Results — investor.sandisk.com, August 5, 2026
- Sandisk (SNDK) Q4 FY26 earnings results beat revenue & EPS expectations — Shacknews
- SNDK Q4 Earnings Beat Estimates, Revenues Rise on Datacenter Growth — Yahoo Finance / Zacks