Equity Research · Earnings Update
Intel Corporation (INTC)
Summary and key takeaways
Intel reported Q1 2026 revenue of $13.6 billion, up 7% year-over-year, exceeding financial expectations for a sixth consecutive quarter, with revenue, gross margin, and EPS all above guidance. Intel Foundry revenue was $5.4 billion, up 20% sequentially, though external foundry revenue — the number that actually validates the third-party customer thesis behind this position — was a comparatively modest $174 million. This print predates the real headline catalyst covered separately in this quarter's June 18 Apple foundry deal and subsequent Opinion piece.
Results snapshot
| Metric | Q1 2026 | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Total revenue | $13.6B | +7% YoY, above guidance |
| Intel Foundry revenue | $5.4B | +20% QoQ |
| External foundry revenue | $174M | Small in absolute terms, the number to watch |
| Q2 2026 revenue guide | $13.8–14.8B | Given with this report |
| Q2 2026 non-GAAP EPS guide | $0.20 | Given with this report |
| Q2 2026 non-GAAP gross margin guide | 39% | Given with this report |
Analysis
This report predates the position's biggest real catalyst this year. At the time of this Q1 print, external foundry revenue was still small ($174 million) — the vast majority of the $5.4 billion foundry number is Intel manufacturing its own chips, not yet third-party customers. The Apple deal disclosed June 18, well after this earnings report, is exactly the kind of external customer win that would need to show up in a future quarter's external-foundry-revenue line to convert the current re-rating from a deal-flow story into a financial-statement story.
This is the tension already flagged in the July 9 Opinion piece: deal announcements and financial results are not the same thing, and this Q1 report is the clearest evidence that, as of this print, the foundry customer-revenue conversion was still very early.
Guidance
- Q2 2026 revenue: $13.8–14.8 billion
- Q2 2026 non-GAAP EPS: $0.20
- Q2 2026 non-GAAP gross margin: 39%
Intel is scheduled to report actual Q2 2026 results on July 23, 2026 — a real, near-term catalyst that will be the first quarter to potentially reflect any early revenue impact from the Apple and Google foundry deal flow.
Updated investment thesis
INTC is up nearly 195% from a $37.43 average cost, overwhelmingly on foundry-turnaround deal-flow sentiment rather than reported foundry financials to date. This Q1 report is useful precisely because it's the "before" picture — external foundry revenue at $174 million, well before the Apple and Google announcements. The July 23 Q2 report is the next real test of whether that deal flow has started converting into recognized revenue, and it should be read carefully rather than assumed.
No position changes from this report. Holding through the July 23 print as the next genuine data point on the thesis.
Risks to this position
- Deal-to-revenue conversion risk: as of Q1 2026, external foundry revenue was a small fraction of total Intel Foundry revenue — the Apple/Google deal flow has not yet been validated in a reported quarter.
- Valuation-ahead-of-fundamentals risk: the stock's re-rating has run well ahead of what's actually been reported in financial statements, per the July 9 Opinion piece.
- Execution risk: converting design wins into shipped, revenue-generating foundry capacity takes years, not quarters.
- Same-cluster risk: INTC sits alongside SNDK, MU, and AMD in the book's largest thematic cluster.
Sources & references
- Intel Reports First-Quarter 2026 Financial Results — intc.com
- Intel Corp (INTC) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Highlights — Yahoo Finance
- AI demand lifts Intel Q1 2026 revenue and outlook — StockTitan