Earnings Analysis

Catalyst Calendar

Real, company-confirmed earnings dates and FOMC meeting dates only — no speculative or estimated dates. Coverage below is the largest positions by weight with a confirmed date as of July 23, 2026; smaller positions and any date not yet announced by the company are left off rather than guessed at. Dates that have already passed are marked Reported below rather than deleted, so the calendar stays a true record of what already happened this quarter — see the note under the table for how the report cards below catch up.

Earnings dates sourced from each company's own investor-relations announcement or SEC 8-K filing, refreshed July 23, 2026 against the current Coverage Book; FOMC dates from the Federal Reserve's published 2026 meeting calendar. Dates can shift — treat this as a planning reference, not a guarantee, and check the linked position page or the company's own IR site closer to the date. Positions not listed either don't report on a fixed public schedule the company has announced yet, or aren't large enough to prioritize research time on before this page's next update.

Portfolio Monitoring

A single-glance status board across every operating position, sorted by weight — the rating each name carries as of its most recently reported quarter, pulled directly from that position's own earnings report, not re-assessed here. This is the coverage-universe view an analyst desk would keep to spot a rating change fast; on this book, that's currently one name (NBIS), not a wave of downgrades.

"Rating" is each report's own conclusion (HOLD = no position change; BUY = initiated or added), not a live re-scoring — it updates only when a new earnings report is published for that name. See the Holdings page for current sizing and the Letters archive for anything that changed between reports.

Consensus vs. AEA Matrix

Street consensus EPS against actual reported EPS, with a real, computed surprise %. The AEA Estimate column is new as of this page redesign (July 11, 2026) — I did not publish pre-earnings EPS estimates before this feature existed, so backfilling one for a quarter that already reported would misrepresent a prediction as having been made before the outcome was known. Historical rows are honestly marked "not tracked pre-earnings"; the column starts populating for real, prospectively, with each new report from here forward. Consensus-estimate coverage below is partial — the largest nine positions by weight with a confidently sourced Street estimate — and will expand over time.

Street consensus EPS sourced via public financial-data aggregators and news coverage at the time of each report, cited on each position's individual earnings report page. Surprise % = (Actual − Consensus) / Consensus. All nine names above beat consensus this reporting cycle — that's a real, if flattering, pattern in this specific batch, not a claim that every position always beats; the Letters archive reports misses and broken theses with the same visibility.

Surprise %, ranked

Same nine rows as the table above, ranked by surprise magnitude rather than allocation weight — SNDK's 63% beat dwarfs the rest of the batch, EL is the only non-tech name to make the list.

% of book refreshed July 23, 2026 from the current Holdings table. Index funds (SPY, VOO, QQQ, SCHD) are excluded — they don't report their own earnings. All 27 operating companies have a published report as of July 11, 2026, each using that company's most recently reported quarter — see the note at the top of this page for the four names (NFLX, GOOGL, NOW, INTC) whose report cards are pending an update to Q2.