Market snapshot, not real-time
S&P 500 (SPY) $748.62 +0.88% Nasdaq-100 (QQQ) $708.90 +1.85% Dow (DIA) $522.55 +0.89% Russell 2000 (IWM) $295.82 +1.20% 10-Year Treasury (IEF) $93.32 −0.23% Crude Oil (USO) $128.37 +2.28% Gold (GLD) $373.85 +1.70% US Dollar Index (UUP) $28.45 +0.23% Volatility (VXX) $21.29 −3.77% Semiconductors (SMH) $583.24 +4.37% Silver (SLV) $53.36 +4.67% Emerging Markets (EEM) $65.45 +2.97% Bitcoin (BTC) $66,470.13 +1.90% Ethereum (ETH) $1,922.88 +1.00% S&P 500 (SPY) $748.62 +0.88% Nasdaq-100 (QQQ) $708.90 +1.85% Dow (DIA) $522.55 +0.89% Russell 2000 (IWM) $295.82 +1.20% 10-Year Treasury (IEF) $93.32 −0.23% Crude Oil (USO) $128.37 +2.28% Gold (GLD) $373.85 +1.70% US Dollar Index (UUP) $28.45 +0.23% Volatility (VXX) $21.29 −3.77% Semiconductors (SMH) $583.24 +4.37% Silver (SLV) $53.36 +4.67% Emerging Markets (EEM) $65.45 +2.97% Bitcoin (BTC) $66,470.13 +1.90% Ethereum (ETH) $1,922.88 +1.00%

Risk

Thematic Exposure

Sector and bucket labels can hide a risk that cuts across both: several holdings can carry completely different sector tags and bucket assignments while still depending on the same underlying bet. This page is that single-theme lens, computed directly from the live Holdings weights.

Checked: July 24, 2026 · First disclosed in the July letter's ongoing-risks section; this page makes it a standing, checkable figure instead of a one-time mention.

17Positions in the theme
60.93%Of the book
1Dominant theme

The theme: AI infrastructure, compute & power

Semiconductors and memory, enterprise software tied to AI capex, AI data-center and compute infrastructure, and the power generation that feeds it are, functionally, one bet: that AI-driven compute and power demand keeps growing. Sixteen of my 32 positions and one leveraged ETF touch this theme in some form. The IPS requires flagging single-theme clustering when it appears — it doesn't cap it, because a written cap here would be arbitrary rather than principled, but disclosure is the discipline in its place.

Every position in the theme

TickerSub-theme% of book
SNDKSemiconductors / memory tied to AI capex7.94%
METAHyperscaler AI capex spender8.75%
AMDSemiconductors / memory tied to AI capex8.32%
MUSemiconductors / memory tied to AI capex5.78%
PANWEnterprise software tied to AI capex5.05%
INTCSemiconductors / memory tied to AI capex4.33%
TLNAI data-center / power infrastructure3.41%
NBILAI data-center / compute (leveraged)2.81%
DDOGEnterprise software tied to AI capex2.22%
NOWEnterprise software tied to AI capex1.73%
AVGOSemiconductors / memory tied to AI capex1.60%
WYFIAI data-center / compute infrastructure1.18%
FTNTEnterprise software tied to AI capex1.40%
CRWVAI data-center / compute infrastructure1.25%
NBISAI data-center / compute infrastructure1.31%
CRWDEnterprise software tied to AI capex1.14%
VSTAI data-center / power infrastructure1.01%

Why this is disclosed, not capped

The IPS's diversification clause calls for flagging single-theme clustering "when it appears," deliberately short of a hard numeric cap. A hard cap on a theme this broadly defined would either be meaningless (set so high it never binds) or would force selling good businesses for a bad reason (correlation, not fundamentals). The honest response is transparency: this page, kept current, plus the standing risk this creates. The NBIS and CRWV selloffs in July 2026 were a live example of exactly this correlation showing up on a single bad week — multiple names in this table moved together on the same news, regardless of their individual fundamentals.

What would change this

Nothing here is a plan to trim the theme — it's a deliberate view that the underlying demand is real and durable. What would change my mind: a sustained deceleration in hyperscaler capex guidance across multiple names in the same earnings season, not a single stock's bad quarter. Until then, this table exists so the concentration is checkable, not just described in prose once and forgotten.