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New: the Coverage Book
Every position below now has an initiating-coverage one-pager — business description, thesis, bull/base/bear cases, key risks, catalysts, and a valuation snapshot, filterable by IPS bucket. Open the Coverage Book →
Exposure Dashboard
Aggregate sector risk, at a glance — the donut below and the exposure bars further down show the same 32 positions two ways. The point is an integrated view of the book: diversification by ticker is not necessarily diversification by economic driver.
Factor tilt
What kind of book this actually is, stated in numbers rather than adjectives — see the Investment Policy Statement for the reasoning behind leaning this way.
Macro Stress-Test
How the book is actually positioned under four scenarios — including the ones it's genuinely exposed to. This isn't a claim that every scenario is defended; the point is naming the real vulnerability alongside the real mitigant, not just the parts that sound good.
Current positioning, no shock assumed
32 positions across 10 sectors, 59.9% Core bucket, 19.9% index-hedge ballast (SPY, VOO, QQQ, SCHD), 2.1% leveraged sleeve (NBIL, capped at 5%). The single largest structural fact about this book: 28.50% direct semiconductor exposure, which is the lens every other scenario below runs through.
A genuine, largely undefended vulnerability
This book is growth-multiple-heavy — semiconductors and AI-infrastructure names priced on future earnings, which compress hardest when discount rates rise. There is no dedicated inflation hedge here (no TIPS, no commodities sleeve, no floating-rate exposure). The honest mitigants are partial at best: the index-hedge sleeve (19.87%) is broad-market ballast, not inflation-specific, and EL's prestige-brand pricing power is a real but small offset at 4.94% of the book.
The best-defended scenario in the book
Every position is a liquid, publicly traded security — no private equity, no illiquid credit, no lockups. The leveraged sleeve (NBIL) is capped at 5% and currently sits at 2.1%, well under that limit, which specifically limits forced-selling risk in a liquidity event. A genuinely broad, real drawdown would still hurt — beta of 1.79 means this book falls harder than SPY — but exiting any position doesn't face the structural friction an illiquid holding would.
The single largest concentrated risk in the book
28.50% of the book sits in semiconductors (SNDK, AMD, MU, INTC, AVGO, ARM), several of which depend on Taiwan-based or Taiwan-adjacent fabrication capacity for leading-edge nodes. This is not a scenario the book is well-defended against — a real supply disruption would hit this sleeve hard and fast. The one partial, real mitigant: Intel's foundry turnaround thesis is specifically a bet on reshoring U.S.-based leading-edge manufacturing, which is a different risk profile than fabless competitors entirely dependent on offshore capacity — but Intel is 4.13% of the book, nowhere near large enough to offset the sleeve's overall exposure.
Holdings verified
Positions are independently verified through Blossom. Dollar values, average cost, and returns below are all real.
Verified via Blossom · Benchmark: SPY See the Compliance Ledger for every IPS cap checked against these numbers, live.
Portfolio composition
The Interactive Holdings Matrix below is the primary record: every position, its sector, live allocation weight, average cost per share, return, my own conviction rating, and compliance status. Click any column header to sort.
| Ticker | Position | Sector | Allocation % | Avg. Cost | Return | Conviction | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SNDK | Sandisk Corp | Semiconductors | 7.94% | $483.21 | +151.41% | Medium | Under Review |
| META | Meta Platforms | Communication Services | 8.42% | $234.32 | +137.59% | High | Active |
| AMD | Advanced Micro Devices | Semiconductors | 7.78% | $199.34 | +138.86% | Medium | Active |
| SPY | SPDR S&P 500 ETF | Index Funds | 7.32% | $655.24 | +14.01% | High | Active |
| VOO | Vanguard S&P 500 ETF | Index Funds | 6.73% | $580.93 | +18.20% | High | Active |
| MU | Micron Technology | Semiconductors | 5.38% | $325.83 | +152.59% | Medium | Active |
| PANW | Palo Alto Networks | Software & Cybersecurity | 5.42% | $160.32 | +106.98% | High | Active |
| INTC | Intel Corporation | Semiconductors | 4.13% | $37.43 | +140.98% | Medium | Active |
| EL | Estée Lauder Companies | Consumer | 4.94% | $69.12 | +21.38% | Medium | Active |
| QQQ | Invesco QQQ Trust | Index Funds | 4.50% | $558.28 | +23.23% | High | Active |
| SPCX | Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX) | Industrials | 2.83% | $135.00 | −19.73% | Low | Active |
| TLN | Talen Energy Corporation | Power & Utilities | 3.28% | $314.57 | +6.21% | Medium | Active |
| GOOGL | Alphabet Inc | Communication Services | 3.49% | $274.57 | +29.70% | High | Active |
| NBIL | GraniteShares 2x Long NBIS Daily ETF | Leveraged Derivative | 2.06% | $9.23 | +128.17% | Low | Active |
| VRT | Vertiv Holdings Co | Industrials | 2.37% | $304.90 | −20.77% | Medium | Active |
| DDOG | Datadog Inc | Software & Cybersecurity | 2.63% | $119.27 | +124.68% | High | Active |
| NOW | ServiceNow Inc | Software & Cybersecurity | 2.18% | $84.76 | +31.23% | High | Active |
| CAKE | The Cheesecake Factory | Consumer | 2.65% | $45.40 | +123.39% | Low | Active |
| ARM | Arm Holdings plc | Semiconductors | 1.57% | $207.83 | +15.33% | Medium | Active |
| AVGO | Broadcom Inc | Semiconductors | 1.70% | $293.47 | +32.65% | High | Active |
| WYFI | WhiteFiber Inc | AI / Cloud Infrastructure | 1.08% | $13.33 | +77.79% | Low | Active |
| FTNT | Fortinet Inc | Software & Cybersecurity | 1.59% | $84.30 | +92.11% | High | Active |
| CRWV | CoreWeave Inc | AI / Cloud Infrastructure | 1.17% | $82.94 | −13.47% | Low | Active |
| NBIS | Nebius Group N.V. | AI / Cloud Infrastructure | 1.24% | $90.12 | +111.28% | Medium | Active |
| SCHD | Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF | Index Funds | 1.31% | $32.24 | +3.82% | High | Active |
| CRWD | CrowdStrike Holdings | Software & Cybersecurity | 1.25% | $94.76 | +101.41% | High | Active |
| AAL | American Airlines Group | Industrials | 1.15% | $10.18 | +50.00% | Low | Active |
| VST | Vistra Corp | Power & Utilities | 0.97% | $134.71 | +10.01% | Medium | Active |
| SYM | Symbotic Inc | Industrials | 0.98% | $38.55 | +11.67% | Low | Active |
| RKLB | Rocket Lab USA | Industrials | 0.64% | $78.59 | −17.36% | Low | Active |
| TEM | Tempus AI Inc | Healthcare Technology | 0.57% | $49.73 | −11.78% | Low | Active |
| NFLX | Netflix Inc | Communication Services | 0.70% | $79.23 | −9.49% | Medium | Active |
How Conviction is scored
High / Medium / Low, assigned by hand for every position, not derived from a formula. High means an established competitive position, a thesis with limited near-term uncertainty, or (for index funds) a structural always-held hedge. Medium means a real, reasoned thesis with a specific identified risk that could compress the multiple or slow growth — cyclicality, execution risk, or valuation stretch. Low means a newer, smaller, or speculative-sleeve position where the thesis is real but genuinely less certain. This is a judgment call, stated plainly as one.
By sector
The same 32 positions, grouped by sector rather than bucket — the lens the Exposure Dashboard's donut chart above already uses, restated here as bars next to the holdings table for a direct read.
Return contribution
Not every position that's up a lot has actually moved the book — a small position with a huge return contributes less than a large position with a modest one. This ranks each holding by today's weight × its total return, the top 10 contributors to where the book stands overall.
Dividend & income
This book is built for growth, not income, but it's worth reporting honestly: the weighted-average dividend yield across the 87.57% of the book with a verified yield figure is 0.24%. SPY and VOO are excluded from that figure — Blossom shows a fundamentals table for neither on this site yet, and I'd rather leave them out than guess. The real income here is concentrated in a handful of positions: SCHD (3.25%), CAKE (1.51%), EL (1.70%), and AVGO (0.69%) do almost all of the work; the AI-infrastructure and semiconductor growth names pay nothing.
Correlation matrix
The July letter argues that much of this book leans on one macro bet — AI infrastructure, semiconductors, and power — and that if the theme cools, many positions fall together. Here's that argument made checkable: real pairwise correlation of daily returns (year-to-date) across every position except SPCX, which has too little trading history to compute a meaningful number yet. Darker cells mean two positions have moved together more closely; lighter cells mean they've moved more independently.
| SNDK | AMD | MU | INTC | AVGO | ARM | PANW | FTNT | CRWD | NBIS | NBIL | CRWV | WYFI | DDOG | NOW | GOOGL | TLN | VST | VRT | RKLB | META | EL | CAKE | AAL | NFLX | SYM | TEM | SPY | VOO | QQQ | SCHD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SNDK | 1.00 | 0.25 | 0.72 | 0.39 | 0.17 | 0.07 | -0.03 | 0.02 | 0.06 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.35 | 0.12 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 0.09 | 0.23 | 0.03 | 0.25 | 0.10 | 0.08 | -0.19 | 0.08 | -0.09 | 0.43 | 0.43 | 0.11 | -0.10 |
| AMD | 0.25 | 1.00 | 0.53 | 0.36 | 0.09 | 0.13 | -0.02 | -0.07 | -0.02 | 0.37 | 0.37 | 0.42 | 0.09 | -0.07 | 0.07 | -0.05 | -0.03 | 0.13 | 0.02 | 0.42 | 0.18 | 0.16 | 0.37 | 0.06 | -0.03 | 0.30 | 0.22 | 0.47 | 0.47 | 0.13 | -0.09 |
| MU | 0.72 | 0.53 | 1.00 | 0.44 | -0.07 | 0.17 | -0.12 | 0.01 | -0.08 | 0.58 | 0.58 | 0.50 | 0.17 | -0.09 | -0.03 | -0.08 | 0.07 | 0.04 | -0.06 | 0.42 | 0.22 | 0.33 | 0.19 | 0.18 | -0.18 | 0.20 | 0.03 | 0.64 | 0.64 | 0.05 | -0.10 |
| INTC | 0.39 | 0.36 | 0.44 | 1.00 | 0.02 | 0.14 | 0.14 | 0.11 | 0.21 | 0.33 | 0.34 | 0.34 | 0.26 | 0.15 | 0.35 | -0.15 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.07 | 0.13 | 0.10 | 0.22 | 0.02 | 0.04 | -0.06 | 0.21 | 0.11 | 0.52 | 0.52 | 0.09 | -0.08 |
| AVGO | 0.17 | 0.09 | -0.07 | 0.02 | 1.00 | 0.44 | 0.30 | 0.16 | 0.36 | -0.13 | -0.12 | 0.07 | 0.04 | 0.23 | 0.08 | 0.17 | 0.27 | 0.27 | 0.55 | -0.29 | -0.16 | 0.01 | 0.07 | 0.16 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.21 | -0.13 | -0.13 | 0.68 | -0.18 |
| ARM | 0.07 | 0.13 | 0.17 | 0.14 | 0.44 | 1.00 | 0.15 | 0.09 | 0.16 | 0.17 | 0.17 | 0.24 | -0.06 | 0.06 | -0.01 | -0.02 | 0.50 | 0.33 | 0.42 | -0.12 | -0.00 | 0.17 | 0.02 | 0.31 | -0.09 | 0.08 | 0.05 | 0.14 | 0.13 | 0.54 | 0.09 |
| PANW | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.12 | 0.14 | 0.30 | 0.15 | 1.00 | 0.72 | 0.88 | -0.06 | -0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.67 | 0.57 | 0.14 | -0.07 | -0.01 | 0.05 | -0.26 | -0.22 | -0.23 | -0.16 | 0.02 | -0.00 | 0.12 | 0.16 | -0.01 | -0.02 | 0.39 | -0.13 |
| FTNT | 0.02 | -0.07 | 0.01 | 0.11 | 0.16 | 0.09 | 0.72 | 1.00 | 0.71 | 0.10 | 0.10 | 0.08 | 0.08 | 0.82 | 0.46 | -0.00 | -0.08 | -0.09 | -0.05 | -0.17 | -0.17 | -0.24 | -0.14 | 0.09 | 0.05 | 0.04 | -0.00 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.28 | -0.05 |
| CRWD | 0.06 | -0.02 | -0.08 | 0.21 | 0.36 | 0.16 | 0.88 | 0.71 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.09 | 0.75 | 0.68 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.09 | 0.05 | -0.31 | -0.13 | -0.18 | -0.17 | -0.02 | 0.02 | 0.06 | 0.19 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.36 | -0.22 |
| NBIS | 0.36 | 0.37 | 0.58 | 0.33 | -0.13 | 0.17 | -0.06 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.79 | 0.30 | -0.07 | -0.08 | -0.16 | 0.02 | 0.06 | -0.09 | 0.37 | 0.17 | 0.03 | 0.06 | 0.16 | -0.10 | 0.36 | -0.02 | 0.56 | 0.56 | -0.05 | 0.11 |
| NBIL | 0.36 | 0.37 | 0.58 | 0.34 | -0.12 | 0.17 | -0.06 | 0.10 | 0.01 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.79 | 0.31 | -0.07 | -0.08 | -0.15 | 0.02 | 0.06 | -0.09 | 0.36 | 0.17 | 0.03 | 0.06 | 0.16 | -0.10 | 0.36 | -0.01 | 0.56 | 0.56 | -0.04 | 0.11 |
| CRWV | 0.35 | 0.42 | 0.50 | 0.34 | 0.07 | 0.24 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.03 | 0.79 | 0.79 | 1.00 | 0.21 | -0.07 | -0.05 | -0.18 | 0.03 | 0.06 | -0.10 | 0.37 | 0.25 | 0.16 | 0.09 | 0.22 | -0.16 | 0.33 | -0.03 | 0.55 | 0.55 | -0.00 | 0.09 |
| WYFI | 0.12 | 0.09 | 0.17 | 0.26 | 0.04 | -0.06 | 0.06 | 0.08 | 0.09 | 0.30 | 0.31 | 0.21 | 1.00 | -0.04 | 0.16 | -0.32 | -0.18 | -0.08 | -0.25 | -0.05 | -0.05 | -0.06 | 0.06 | -0.01 | 0.04 | -0.07 | 0.15 | 0.15 | 0.15 | -0.23 | -0.01 |
| DDOG | 0.01 | -0.07 | -0.09 | 0.15 | 0.23 | 0.06 | 0.67 | 0.82 | 0.75 | -0.07 | -0.07 | -0.07 | -0.04 | 1.00 | 0.53 | 0.03 | 0.08 | 0.04 | 0.10 | -0.22 | -0.10 | -0.22 | -0.10 | 0.11 | -0.00 | 0.02 | 0.17 | -0.06 | -0.05 | 0.37 | -0.21 |
| NOW | 0.02 | 0.07 | -0.03 | 0.35 | 0.08 | -0.01 | 0.57 | 0.46 | 0.68 | -0.08 | -0.08 | -0.05 | 0.16 | 0.53 | 1.00 | -0.04 | -0.09 | -0.04 | -0.26 | -0.20 | 0.05 | -0.13 | -0.04 | -0.09 | 0.15 | 0.11 | 0.37 | 0.26 | 0.25 | 0.07 | -0.18 |
| GOOGL | 0.01 | -0.05 | -0.08 | -0.15 | 0.17 | -0.02 | 0.14 | -0.00 | 0.04 | -0.16 | -0.15 | -0.18 | -0.32 | 0.03 | -0.04 | 1.00 | 0.05 | -0.06 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.13 | -0.13 | 0.07 | 0.20 | 0.22 | 0.03 | 0.25 | -0.09 | -0.11 | 0.49 | 0.09 |
| TLN | 0.07 | -0.03 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.27 | 0.50 | -0.07 | -0.08 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.03 | -0.18 | 0.08 | -0.09 | 0.05 | 1.00 | 0.81 | 0.42 | -0.11 | 0.22 | 0.24 | 0.05 | 0.40 | -0.12 | -0.06 | 0.26 | -0.10 | -0.10 | 0.38 | -0.06 |
| VST | 0.02 | 0.13 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.27 | 0.33 | -0.01 | -0.09 | 0.09 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.06 | -0.08 | 0.04 | -0.04 | -0.06 | 0.81 | 1.00 | 0.44 | -0.08 | 0.17 | 0.22 | 0.06 | 0.25 | -0.17 | 0.06 | 0.21 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.30 | -0.11 |
| VRT | 0.09 | 0.02 | -0.06 | 0.07 | 0.55 | 0.42 | 0.05 | -0.05 | 0.05 | -0.09 | -0.09 | -0.10 | -0.25 | 0.10 | -0.26 | 0.06 | 0.42 | 0.44 | 1.00 | -0.18 | -0.25 | -0.05 | -0.04 | 0.05 | -0.04 | 0.05 | -0.04 | -0.29 | -0.29 | 0.60 | -0.04 |
| RKLB | 0.23 | 0.42 | 0.42 | 0.13 | -0.29 | -0.12 | -0.26 | -0.17 | -0.31 | 0.37 | 0.36 | 0.37 | -0.05 | -0.22 | -0.20 | 0.00 | -0.11 | -0.08 | -0.18 | 1.00 | 0.19 | 0.17 | 0.09 | -0.03 | -0.06 | 0.18 | 0.00 | 0.40 | 0.40 | -0.18 | -0.02 |
| META | 0.03 | 0.18 | 0.22 | 0.10 | -0.16 | -0.00 | -0.22 | -0.17 | -0.13 | 0.17 | 0.17 | 0.25 | -0.05 | -0.10 | 0.05 | 0.13 | 0.22 | 0.17 | -0.25 | 0.19 | 1.00 | 0.34 | 0.08 | 0.21 | 0.16 | 0.08 | 0.29 | 0.51 | 0.51 | -0.14 | 0.11 |
| EL | 0.25 | 0.16 | 0.33 | 0.22 | 0.01 | 0.17 | -0.23 | -0.24 | -0.18 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.16 | -0.06 | -0.22 | -0.13 | -0.13 | 0.24 | 0.22 | -0.05 | 0.17 | 0.34 | 1.00 | 0.13 | 0.06 | -0.19 | 0.00 | -0.02 | 0.44 | 0.45 | -0.11 | 0.07 |
| CAKE | 0.10 | 0.37 | 0.19 | 0.02 | 0.07 | 0.02 | -0.16 | -0.14 | -0.17 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.09 | 0.06 | -0.10 | -0.04 | 0.07 | 0.05 | 0.06 | -0.04 | 0.09 | 0.08 | 0.13 | 1.00 | 0.51 | -0.02 | 0.18 | 0.33 | 0.10 | 0.11 | 0.20 | 0.24 |
| AAL | 0.08 | 0.06 | 0.18 | 0.04 | 0.16 | 0.31 | 0.02 | 0.09 | -0.02 | 0.16 | 0.16 | 0.22 | -0.01 | 0.11 | -0.09 | 0.20 | 0.40 | 0.25 | 0.05 | -0.03 | 0.21 | 0.06 | 0.51 | 1.00 | -0.23 | -0.01 | 0.30 | 0.06 | 0.07 | 0.37 | 0.14 |
| NFLX | -0.19 | -0.03 | -0.18 | -0.06 | 0.00 | -0.09 | -0.00 | 0.05 | 0.02 | -0.10 | -0.10 | -0.16 | 0.04 | -0.00 | 0.15 | 0.22 | -0.12 | -0.17 | -0.04 | -0.06 | 0.16 | -0.19 | -0.02 | -0.23 | 1.00 | 0.10 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.06 | -0.01 | 0.25 |
| SYM | 0.08 | 0.30 | 0.20 | 0.21 | 0.01 | 0.08 | 0.12 | 0.04 | 0.06 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.33 | -0.07 | 0.02 | 0.11 | 0.03 | -0.06 | 0.06 | 0.05 | 0.18 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.18 | -0.01 | 0.10 | 1.00 | 0.13 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.13 | 0.15 |
| TEM | -0.09 | 0.22 | 0.03 | 0.11 | 0.21 | 0.05 | 0.16 | -0.00 | 0.19 | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.03 | 0.15 | 0.17 | 0.37 | 0.25 | 0.26 | 0.21 | -0.04 | 0.00 | 0.29 | -0.02 | 0.33 | 0.30 | 0.06 | 0.13 | 1.00 | 0.07 | 0.08 | 0.32 | -0.07 |
| SPY | 0.43 | 0.47 | 0.64 | 0.52 | -0.13 | 0.14 | -0.01 | 0.01 | 0.07 | 0.56 | 0.56 | 0.55 | 0.15 | -0.06 | 0.26 | -0.09 | -0.10 | 0.00 | -0.29 | 0.40 | 0.51 | 0.44 | 0.10 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.36 | 0.07 | 1.00 | 1.00 | -0.12 | 0.06 |
| VOO | 0.43 | 0.47 | 0.64 | 0.52 | -0.13 | 0.13 | -0.02 | 0.02 | 0.07 | 0.56 | 0.56 | 0.55 | 0.15 | -0.05 | 0.25 | -0.11 | -0.10 | 0.01 | -0.29 | 0.40 | 0.51 | 0.45 | 0.11 | 0.07 | 0.06 | 0.36 | 0.08 | 1.00 | 1.00 | -0.13 | 0.07 |
| QQQ | 0.11 | 0.13 | 0.05 | 0.09 | 0.68 | 0.54 | 0.39 | 0.28 | 0.36 | -0.05 | -0.04 | -0.00 | -0.23 | 0.37 | 0.07 | 0.49 | 0.38 | 0.30 | 0.60 | -0.18 | -0.14 | -0.11 | 0.20 | 0.37 | -0.01 | 0.13 | 0.32 | -0.12 | -0.13 | 1.00 | -0.06 |
| SCHD | -0.10 | -0.09 | -0.10 | -0.08 | -0.18 | 0.09 | -0.13 | -0.05 | -0.22 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.09 | -0.01 | -0.21 | -0.18 | 0.09 | -0.06 | -0.11 | -0.04 | -0.02 | 0.11 | 0.07 | 0.24 | 0.14 | 0.25 | 0.15 | -0.07 | 0.06 | 0.07 | -0.06 | 1.00 |
AEA Compute & Memory Basket
An internal tracking basket, not a holding you can buy — a way of watching the compute/memory theme underneath several positions in this book move as a single unit, the way a desk might track an unofficial internal index. Equal-weighted across four names; two are current positions, two aren't held but sit squarely in the same theme.
AEA Internal Tracking Basket
Compute & Memory Basket vs. QQQ
Equal-weighted daily return, most recent session.