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S&P 500 (SPY) $769.79 −0.20% Nasdaq-100 (QQQ) $717.30 −0.90% Dow (DIA) $542.81 +0.44% Russell 2000 (IWM) $299.77 −0.64% 10-Year Treasury (IEF) $93.31 +0.06% Crude Oil (USO) $114.88 −0.78% Gold (GLD) $389.64 +4.14% US Dollar Index (UUP) $28.09 −0.25% Volatility (VXX) $20.51 −3.57% Semiconductors (SMH) $569.70 −1.04% Silver (SLV) $56.07 +4.14% Emerging Markets (EEM) $65.72 −0.42% Bitcoin (BTC) $64,603.03 +0.86% Ethereum (ETH) $1,907.29 +2.08% S&P 500 (SPY) $769.79 −0.20% Nasdaq-100 (QQQ) $717.30 −0.90% Dow (DIA) $542.81 +0.44% Russell 2000 (IWM) $299.77 −0.64% 10-Year Treasury (IEF) $93.31 +0.06% Crude Oil (USO) $114.88 −0.78% Gold (GLD) $389.64 +4.14% US Dollar Index (UUP) $28.09 −0.25% Volatility (VXX) $20.51 −3.57% Semiconductors (SMH) $569.70 −1.04% Silver (SLV) $56.07 +4.14% Emerging Markets (EEM) $65.72 −0.42% Bitcoin (BTC) $64,603.03 +0.86% Ethereum (ETH) $1,907.29 +2.08%
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Independent student research — not an investment firm or financial advice

August 2026 · Interim Note

SpaceX Guided to $1 Trillion and Fell 13.6% Anyway

August 5, 2026 · Not a full monthly letter — a short check-in between them

Wednesday was a lesson in how little a good quarter matters once the market has decided what story it’s telling. SpaceX — one of my Spec-bucket positions, 8 shares at a $135.00 average cost — guided to a $100 billion annual run rate by December and $1 trillion of revenue by 2030, and the stock fell 13.61% to $108.27 anyway, now sitting below what I paid for it.

The two names that actually mattered

SpaceX’s drop looks mostly mechanical rather than fundamental: 911.5 million insider shares become eligible for sale as its post-IPO lockup expires Thursday, and Elon Musk named Nvidia — not AMD — as the exclusive AI-chip supplier for the company’s orbital compute buildout. AMD, my largest Core position by cost basis (5 shares at $199.34), fell 7.04% to $482.05 despite record revenue of $11.5 billion and data-center revenue doubling to $6.7 billion — the SpaceX news plus flat Q3 gross-margin guidance did the damage there. Full details on the News page, and I go further into what this pattern means in today’s Opinion piece.

The rest of the book was quietly rough too: SanDisk fell 5.40%, Alphabet fell 4.03%, Nebius fell 2.99% (its leveraged NBIL sleeve fell 5.85%), and Talen fell 2.99%. Almost nothing in the AI-adjacent part of my portfolio was green. Meanwhile gold and silver both jumped 4.14% — about as clean a signal as you get that money rotated toward safety rather than out of the market entirely.

No trades today

The Blackout Rule and Holding Period exist for exactly this kind of session. SpaceX sitting below my cost basis after one day isn’t a thesis break — a lockup expiration is a scheduled, dated event I knew was coming, not new information about the business. I made no trades Wednesday and don’t expect Thursday’s lockup unlock itself to change that.

Sources: cited in full on the linked News and Opinion articles. Price data via Massive Market Data. This note is educational and reflects my personal views only. It is not investment advice.