August 2026 · Interim Note
Arm Jumps 17%, Intel and SanDisk Both Rally 11% — No Trades
Another green day, though a messier one than Monday. 29 of 32 positions closed higher, but the one clear loser wasn’t small: Vistra fell 8.15%, and I don’t have a story for why. The winners, by contrast, mostly do have stories — some good ones, some pretty thin.
Arm was the biggest mover in the book, up 17.36%. I can’t point to a single piece of Arm-specific news that explains a move that size — it rode the same broad semiconductor recovery that lifted the whole complex (more on that in today’s Opinion piece). Intel and SanDisk each rose exactly 10.84%, Micron added 7.62%, and Broadcom gained 6.61% — all part of the same sector-wide bounce off July’s selloff, per the day’s market wrap.
The two moves I can actually explain: CoreWeave and AMD both rose more than 7%, and Nebius’s leveraged NBIL ETF added another 12.11% on top of Monday’s 23%. SpaceX gained 9.43% ahead of its first earnings report as a public company. None of that touches my cost basis — I’m long all of these already.
Vistra is the one I keep coming back to. It’s a name Wall Street has spent months framing as a direct AI-power-demand beneficiary, and it fell 8.15% on a day the rest of the market rallied hard, with no dated news I could find that explains it. I’m logging it as unexplained rather than inventing a reason.
No trades. A good day, or a confusing one, still isn’t a decision.