Opinion — September 23, 2026

The Economy Can Be Stronger Than Your Stock Can Afford

A strong economy and a falling stock market are not a contradiction. They become a contradiction only if I assume a share price responds to growth and nothing else.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s Jacksonville branch
The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s Jacksonville branch. Strong activity can support earnings while complicating the rates outlook. Archive photo: Michael Rivera / Wikimedia Commons · CC BY-SA 4.0.

A strong economy and a falling stock market are not a contradiction. They become a contradiction only if I assume a share price responds to growth and nothing else.

Wednesday was a useful reminder that a company can receive better demand news and a worse discount rate at the same time. For a mature business collecting cash now, that trade-off may be manageable. For a business spending heavily today to generate uncertain cash much later, the financing side can dominate.

That does not make every selloff in growth stocks rational. It does mean “the economy is fine” is too small an answer to a valuation question. The question is whether profits grow fast enough, and arrive soon enough, to compensate investors for the alternative return available elsewhere.

I want my models to show that tension explicitly. Raising the revenue assumption while leaving financing costs and the discount rate untouched can make a cyclical boom look safer than it is. The better exercise is to change the assumptions together and see whether the thesis still has room. A business should not need an implausibly convenient combination of strong demand and permanently cheap capital to justify its price.

Reporting notes

  1. Reuters via Fidelity · September 23 close
Dates, image credits and methodology

This page covers September 23, 2026. First published October 27, 2026 as retrospective coverage; revised October 29, 2026. The coverage date is not a claim of contemporaneous publication.

Photos depict identified subjects and are credited individually. Archival images are not presented as photographs of the reported events. No interviews, transactions, eyewitness details or price series have been invented.

Educational personal research, not investment advice. Disclosures.