Nebius fell 5.27% and NBIL fell 10.89%. After Monday’s gains it would be easy to give Tuesday too much explanatory weight. The two lines share the same underlying exposure: NBIL targets twice the daily percentage move before fees and expenses, not twice a multi-day return. These are market-price changes, not a measure of the fund’s daily net asset value tracking or of what happened in my brokerage account.
Nebius scheduled its results webcast for November 12. I want to see what the company discloses about capacity already serving customers and the cash still needed to build out future capacity. If capacity is growing, I want to distinguish a site that is ready from equipment that is installed and generating revenue. AMD’s sales outlook gives me a separate test for the chip supplier; it does not answer those cloud operating questions.
NBIS against SPY
35 common trading sessions · first close = 100
View the closing-price data
| Date | NBIS | SPY |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-23 | $226.61 | $767.81 |
| 2026-09-24 | $243.48 | $767.18 |
| 2026-09-25 | $237.33 | $771.35 |
| 2026-09-28 | $231.88 | $765.61 |
| 2026-09-29 | $237.35 | $764.20 |
| 2026-09-30 | $235.88 | $762.63 |
| 2026-10-01 | $232.28 | $763.99 |
| 2026-10-02 | $242.81 | $769.64 |
| 2026-10-05 | $232.57 | $774.83 |
| 2026-10-06 | $249.87 | $779.09 |
| 2026-10-07 | $237.15 | $777.22 |
| 2026-10-08 | $219.71 | $773.93 |
| 2026-10-09 | $221.07 | $778.57 |
| 2026-10-12 | $210.06 | $778.10 |
| 2026-10-13 | $206.86 | $778.01 |
| 2026-10-14 | $186.01 | $769.60 |
| 2026-10-15 | $188.41 | $771.79 |
| 2026-10-16 | $165.47 | $763.25 |
| 2026-10-19 | $170.24 | $766.48 |
| 2026-10-20 | $171.45 | $769.05 |
| 2026-10-21 | $171.57 | $773.09 |
| 2026-10-22 | $159.17 | $763.96 |
| 2026-10-23 | $158.74 | $759.97 |
| 2026-10-26 | $153.27 | $765.37 |
| 2026-10-27 | $170.47 | $769.66 |
| 2026-10-28 | $182.34 | $772.31 |
| 2026-10-29 | $171.99 | $769.36 |
| 2026-10-30 | $154.14 | $755.72 |
| 2026-11-02 | $141.39 | $752.10 |
| 2026-11-03 | $151.64 | $754.35 |
| 2026-11-04 | $141.52 | $766.81 |
| 2026-11-05 | $120.37 | $733.00 |
| 2026-11-06 | $129.49 | $735.29 |
| 2026-11-09 | $141.45 | $752.69 |
| 2026-11-10 | $134.00 | $749.92 |
I am not treating the pullback as a transaction or a new thesis. The share file is not a trade ledger, and this letter claims no verified trade or account return. The Blackout Rule and Holding Period remain in force. I want the questions on paper before the release so I can check what actually changed afterward.
| Measure | Reported figure | Context |
|---|---|---|
| NBIS | -5.27% | Published holding; underlying share move |
| NBIL | -10.89% | Published holding; leveraged ETF share move |
| AMD | +1.30% | Published holding; separate issuer |
Aydin Ali
AEA Capital Research