NBIL gained 18.90% on Monday and NBIS rose 9.24%. Both appear in the published holdings. I need to read those lines together because the fund targets twice the underlying stock’s daily percentage move, before fees and expenses. It does not target twice the return over my holding period. The table shows market prices, not a test of the fund’s net asset value against its objective.
Nebius scheduled its results webcast for November 12. I want to compare the company’s next disclosures with the assumptions already in the file about capacity, utilization and the cash required to add it. The price change in the leveraged fund cannot answer those questions. AMD’s separate fourth-quarter sales guide is useful for its own file, not as a proxy for the economics of a cloud operator. I would rather leave the Nebius questions open than fill them in with a chip supplier’s forecast.
NBIL against SPY
35 common trading sessions · first close = 100
View the closing-price data
| Date | NBIL | SPY |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-22 | $26.81 | $773.38 |
| 2026-09-23 | $24.58 | $767.81 |
| 2026-09-24 | $28.22 | $767.18 |
| 2026-09-25 | $26.79 | $771.35 |
| 2026-09-28 | $25.58 | $765.61 |
| 2026-09-29 | $26.74 | $764.20 |
| 2026-09-30 | $26.40 | $762.63 |
| 2026-10-01 | $25.65 | $763.99 |
| 2026-10-02 | $27.85 | $769.64 |
| 2026-10-05 | $25.60 | $774.83 |
| 2026-10-06 | $29.27 | $779.09 |
| 2026-10-07 | $26.32 | $777.22 |
| 2026-10-08 | $22.44 | $773.93 |
| 2026-10-09 | $22.71 | $778.57 |
| 2026-10-12 | $20.44 | $778.10 |
| 2026-10-13 | $19.82 | $778.01 |
| 2026-10-14 | $15.81 | $769.60 |
| 2026-10-15 | $16.17 | $771.79 |
| 2026-10-16 | $12.21 | $763.25 |
| 2026-10-19 | $12.92 | $766.48 |
| 2026-10-20 | $13.09 | $769.05 |
| 2026-10-21 | $13.12 | $773.09 |
| 2026-10-22 | $11.20 | $763.96 |
| 2026-10-23 | $11.13 | $759.97 |
| 2026-10-26 | $10.36 | $765.37 |
| 2026-10-27 | $12.68 | $769.66 |
| 2026-10-28 | $14.42 | $772.31 |
| 2026-10-29 | $12.78 | $769.36 |
| 2026-10-30 | $10.10 | $755.72 |
| 2026-11-02 | $8.44 | $752.10 |
| 2026-11-03 | $9.64 | $754.35 |
| 2026-11-04 | $8.34 | $766.81 |
| 2026-11-05 | $5.86 | $733.00 |
| 2026-11-06 | $6.72 | $735.29 |
| 2026-11-09 | $7.99 | $752.69 |
A strong session can make two correlated positions look like two independent wins. They are not. I am recording the shared exposure and the next disclosure to check. This letter claims neither a trade nor an account return. The Blackout Rule and Holding Period still apply.
| Measure | Reported figure | Context |
|---|---|---|
| NBIS | +9.24% | Common underlying exposure |
| NBIL | +18.90% | Daily leveraged fund; market-price move |
| AMD | +13.26% | Separate published holding |
Aydin Ali
AEA Capital Research